Sunday, 4 December 2011

Musings on the Financial Meltdown

The whole mess can be distilled into a surprisingly simple observation, and it is deeply disturbing that this has not understood and acted upon by those that we have elected to represent us.
There is another more sinister explanation - that they have been manipulated into agreeing to abolish the Glass-Steagall Act and allow an unregulated financial free-for-all.
Anyway - here goes: If debt increases faster than value creation value gets destroyed. Simple.
This I seem to remember was understood by us as undergraduate students in 1970!
One cannot escape the suspicion that the financial industry have wilfully constructed a structure where increasingly fancy "products" have been invented where enough fees are paid up front to make it look suspiciously like a ponzi scheme.
Let us take a household as an example. The situation is analogous on a national level.
If we wish to invest and consume in excess of our income, we must borrow. This implies that we use resources in advance of having created the value - hence the value must be created later. This implies risk. 
This works if the assets we invest in increase in value, and if our income grows making debt repayment easy.
This is fine on an individual level in a growing economy. If, however, you get systemic debt expansion to finance investment and consumption over extended periods, asset values will expand to levels where new entrants will be unable to fund new investments and the bubble will burst.
The ensuing collapse in asset values will cause an economic contraction, reducing the ability of households to maintain debt repayments and a stable level of consumption. This is what is happening now.
In Norway, also known as "Cloud ptarmigan land", all interest payments are tax deductible for personal tax payers. The state subsidizes the property asset bubble and our mad consumerist frenzy. Our 20 % credit card interest is tax deductible. Amazing!
If we replace the interest tax deduction with a single, simple deduction equivalent to your "dignity income" that will fix it. That gives the individual freedom to determine how to manage their disposable income without artificial stimulants.
Equally important and not well appreciated is the poverty trap created by the state by loading those on the bottom of the income pyramid with too many costs and complexities. This causes economic and psychological anxiety and is a major contributor to the spiralling social and medical costs we are experiencing.
At the macroeconomic level, however, Norway is a shining example of probity and fiscal discipline  Hat off for that!!
Governments in the post Reagan - Thatcher era, inspired by monetarists and economic  liberalism with blind faith in "free" markets, deregulation and complete freedom for financial institutions to create weird and wonderful financial "products" are in the process of destroying society as we know it.
At a national level in many other countries, politicians have borrowed big time for infrastructure, welfare and "social consumption" Fine in the short term, and a winner if you want to get back in office.
The wanton borrowing frenzy by Greece is probably the most glaring example here.
Low interest rates have been a major contributor.
Getting out of this mess will be tough as hell and will take a long time.
Enough for now.

Sunday, 20 November 2011

Energy for All - effective lighting and cooking for low income rural communities

Item one: Cooking Problem statements:

Charcoal based cooking is harmful:
  • Gathering fuel too labour/energy inefficient 
  • Produces CO2
  • Destroys tree cover
  • Emits harmful smoke
  • Harms respiratory systems and health
  • Soot particles from cooking increases global warming
Solution: World Stove


This device can be manufactured by local micro entrepreneurs and is relatively simple to make. It is 93% energy efficient. It burns a wide range of biomass. Straw, husks, twigs etc. It is essentially a biochar device in that gases produced by the pyrolysis is emitted at the top and is used for cooking. The flame acts as an oxygen trap and allows the biomass below to be turned into biochar after it has emitted the combustible gases.

The result of this is amazing!!
  • It is carbon negative
  • It can provide a household with clean cooking
  • It produces biochar which will dramatically improve soil quality and improve yields.
Result: Clean, energy efficient, sustainable environmental micro business. 

Here is a video showing it all:


Item Two: Household and reading lighting Problem Statement:

In a rural setting with no electric power, kerosene is an expensive and dirty way to obtain light. Solar panels are moving in, but still quite expensive and complex with all the supporting paraphernalia like batteries etc.

Solution:

The Nuru Light.

LED lamps are sold by local entrepreneurs who then offer a charging service. The charger is a pedal generator, or potentially photo voltaic, or from the grid if there is power nearby. 20 minutes of pedaling charges the Ni-cad batteries in the lamps that will then last 9-25 hours depending on use intensity. The cost of a recharge is a fraction of the cost of kerosene.

This video should explain it:


Happy reading and viewing!







Saturday, 24 September 2011

Possible paradigm shift in engine technology?

Here is the principle copied from the website of: www.tocircle.com


Problems have given birth to most innovations throughout history. The challenge that triggered Tocircle’s engineers was the need for improving the Wankel engine.

The beauty of the Tocircle machine is that the piston moves in a perfect circle. It rotates within a cylinder around the central drive shaft. The circular motion makes the motor almost vibration-free and exceptionally quiet. Vanes create chambers which give the rotary machine a constant moment arm and an impressively high rotation momentum.

The solution turned out to reach far beyond what it was meant to solve in the outset. Knowing that 20 % of the world’s power is consumed by pump systems, it soon became obvious that the range of possible applications was vast. During the development period Tocircle has produced and tested pumps, compressors, expanders and combustion engines based on this unique invention.
In essence the Tocircle concept is a simple idea based on a new geometric principle. Tocircle Industries owns worldwide patents to the technology which can be used for engines, multiphase pumps, expanders, compressors, steam engines, injection pumps, vacuum pumps and more, in a variety of applications. The technology has the potential of becoming very important to petroleum, water and automotive industries.

It looks like:

Sunday, 14 August 2011

3D Printing - The next Industrial Revolution - without the Industry

You need a spare carburetor for your vintage car. You go to your street corner 3D print shop. They download the carburetor software from the car manufacturer. One hour later you collect your part.

It has been made by a process called additive manufacturing. The process uses the exact amount of metal needed. With machined parts, a significant amount of metal is wasted. There is no inventory, no transport and no working capital locked up. The CFO will love it. The customer will love it.

Virtually any 3D product can be made on demand.

This will turn conventions totally on their head. This will be to manufacturing what the Internet was to communications.

Some examples:

A video camera



A metal part:



Another example:



The Economist got excited about this some time ago. Check their article: http://econ.st/pqDufM

Saturday, 13 August 2011

Seawater Greenhouse


Climate change, together with rising world populations and unsustainable farming practices, are causing the exhaustion of fresh water and food resources. The necessity for both is expected to exceed availability in the foreseeable future. It is the simple reality of this situation which gave rise to the idea for the Seawater Greenhouse.

The Seawater Greenhouse provides a low-cost solution by enabling year-round crop production in some of the world’s hottest and driest regions. It does this using seawater and sunlight.   The technology imitates natural processes, helping to restore the environment while significantly reducing the operating costs of greenhouse horticulture.